'Smurfs' Edges 'Cowboys & Aliens' Friday But Who Wins Weekend? 'Crazy Stupid Love' #4

Full Writethru coming... SATURDAY AM, 4TH UPDATE: (Mea Culpa:Not a good idea for me to stay up all night doing box office. I get tired and transpose figures. Here are the corrected numbers.)According to Universal's North American box office stats, Cowboys & Aliens opened only #2 Friday with $12.994M, beaten by the $13.291M debut of Sony Pictures' The Smurfs. ButUniversal is still claimingits Western/scifi mashup should come in#1 for the weekend at $36.78M, behind the little blue guys toon's $36.02M. Or is that only wishful thinking at this point?Smurfs is really overperforming while Cowboys & Aliens isway behind expectations to the point of tanking. FRIDAY PM/SATURDAY AM, 2ND UPDATE: What's more humiliating thanHollywoodexecsoverestimating opening day for Cowboys & Aliens and having it fall short? Having the well-pedigreed motion picture with big Hollywood writers (Roberto Orci & Alex Kurtzman), stars (Daniel Craig & Harrison Ford), director (Jon Favreau), and producers (Steven Spielberg, Ron Howard, & Brian Grazer)beaten at the box office byThe Smurfs. Talk about humiliation! Especially with Smurfs playing in 355fewer North American theaters than Cowboys butcharginghigher 3D ticket prices.By late night Friday, it became clear that not only was theWestern/scifi mashup from DreamWorks and Relativity and Imagine and Universal (distributing domestic only with Paramount taking foreign)not doing the predicted$45 million for the weekend, but that itwas running neck-and-neck with Sony Pictures' little blue guys toon for first place Friday and may not even get to $40M weekend grosses. "Cowboys & Aliens did not get any late night young male business -- hence the reason Universal's estimates were so far off," a rival studio exec explains to me. So both Cowboys and Smurfs are looking around$13M for Friday. And we won't knowwho is truly No. 1 well into Saturdaymorning. Sony execs went to bedexpecting Smurfs tobe #1 today with $13.5Mwhich shouldtranslate into a "wayoverperforming' $37M. "That, plus a huge opening in Spain, makes for a prettySmurfy opening with worldwide prospects for France, Belgium, and Germany opening next week," a Sony exec gloated.Some rival studios are even predicting that Cowboys could fall short with only mid-$30sM."If we beat them or even areclose Saturday, we've got them as our Sunday will definitely be better," said the Sony exec. Smurfs beat Cowboys on CinemaScores 'A' vs 'B'.The other major studio release was Warner Bros' Crazy, Stupid, Love which received'B+'and is looking around $20M for the weekend. Refined numbers and full analysis in the morning. Here's the Top 10: 1. Cowboys & Aliens (DreamWorks/Universal) NEW [3,750 Runs] Friday $13M, Estimated Weekend $40M This is well below the studio's own lowball projections of $45+M. (I've been saying for months this pic should have been done as a comedy!) Problem is that the budget has been pegged by insiders at $163M-$200M. That's partly becauseCowboys & Aliens endured a tortured 14-year development history involving more than a dozen writers. (Just five writers received screenplay credit after the Writers Guild not surprisingly held an arbitration trying to figure out who did what.) Yet another Hollywood case study of too many cooks spoiling the broth. Tracking had been lagging especially with women of all ages until last Thursday when it popped up. Good thing Universal is only on the hook for 25% financing and domestic-only distribution with DreamWorks taking 50% and Relativity Media 25%. Paramount is distributing foreign. 1. The Smurfs - 3D (Sony) NEW [3,395 Runs] Friday $13M, Estimated Weekend $40M Sure, it's easy to look down your nose at The Smurfs, but it was brought in and championed by no less than Sony Pictures Entertainment Chairman Michael Lynton. And at Sony Animation, it was overseen by Bob Osher and Hannah Minghella (who is now president of production for Sony's Columbia Pictures). 3. Captain America - 3D (Marvel/Disney/Paramount) Week 2 [3,715 Runs] Friday $7.5M (-68%), Estimated Weekend $25M, Estimated Cume $110M 4. Crazy, Stupid, Love (Warner Bros) NEW [3,020 Runs] Friday $7M, Estimated Weekend $20M 5. Harry Potter/Hallows Pt 2 - 3D(Warner Bros) Week 3 [4,145 Runs] Friday $6.7M,Estimated Weekend$22M, Estimated Cume $318M 6. Friends With Benefits (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 2 [2,926 Runs] Friday $3.2M (-53%),Estimated Weekend$10M, Estimated Cume $39M 7. Horrible Bosses (New Line/Warner Bros) Week 4[2,510 Runs] Friday $2.2M, Estimated Weekend $7M, Estimated Cume $96.2M 8. Transformers 3 - 3D (Paramount) Week 5 [2,604 Runs[] Friday $2M, Estimated Weekend $7M, Estimated Cume $339M 9. Zookeeper (Sony) Week 4 [2,418 Runs] Friday $1.3M,Estimated Weekend$4.3M, Estimated Cume $68.8M 10. Cars 2 - 3D(Pixar/Disney)Week 6[1,763 Runs] Friday $750K, Estimated Weekend $2.5M, Estimated Cume $182M FRIDAY 5 PM UPDATE: Now I'm told that DreamWorks/Imagine/Universal's mashup Cowboys & Aliens is picking up steam at the box office tonight and could open with$17M grosses for Friday and a $45M weekend. "It's hitting a good pace," a Universal exec just told me. Maybe there's more room there because the weekend number is still on the low end of what the studio was expecting. Sony Pictures' Smurfs is looking even stronger for$12M today for a $32M weekend which is respectable for its target audience of very young moviegoers. And Warner Bros' Crazy, Stupid, Love is still looking like $6M today for probably a $19M first weekend in line with other recent rom-coms. Stay tuned for more updates and full analysis tonight. FRIDAY 12 PM: It's still very early so I'm not prepared yet to definitively say that DreamWorks/Imagine/Universal's mashup Cowboys & Aliens is dramatically underperforming because older audiences come out later. But sources are telling me that today's seeming $15M debut may add up to at most a$40M weekend which is below the studio's own lowball projections of $45+M. (This should have been done as a comedy!) Problem is that the budgethas beenpegged by insiders at $163M-$200M. And then there are big starsDaniel Craig and Harrison Ford,the god-fathering presence of Steven Spielberg and Imagine's Ron Howard and Brian Grazer, anddirectorJon Favreau of Iron Man films fame. Despite this pedigree, Cowboys & Aliens endured a tortured 14-year development history involving more than a dozen writers. (Just five writers received screenplay credit after the Writers Guild not surprisingly held an arbitration trying to figure out who did what.)Yet another Hollywood case study of too many cooks spoiling the broth. Tracking had been lagging especially with women of all ages until last Thursday when it popped up. Good thing Universal is only on the hook for 25%financing and domestic-only distributionwith DreamWorks taking 50% and Relativity Media 25%. Paramount is distributing foreign. Sony Pictures' Smurfs is looking like $10M today for $29M weekend which is respectable for its target audience of very young moviegoers. And Warner Bros' Crazy, Stupid, Love is looking like $6M today for probably a $18M first weekend. More numbers and full analysis later today.